#6- Will smartphones cannibalize PNDs ?

That's the usual question about convergence. Will the smartphone be the swiss army knife, leaving PNDs in the dust and grabing the automotive market ? Well, our most regular readers know that we do not quite believe in convergence, but rather in divergence.

Basically, we expect smartphones and PNDs to co-exist for quite some time without having a major negative impact on PND's growth rate. Because :

• PNDs have the best form factor for car navigation because of their larger screens, ease of use, reduced number of clics to activate any navigation function (try to configure your GPS phone navigator while driving ... or rather DON'T TRY).

• While PNDs are excellent for car navigation, smartphones are great for pedestrians. We expect the two products to diverge also in terms of maps. Pedestrians need more information about altitude, stairs, what's going on around a position, etc, while car drivers need to know the speed limit, the traffic congestion, gas prices, speedcams locations, etc.

• Three years ago, high resolution camera phones didn't really cannibalise digital camera sales. Sales of digital cameras have been quite strong recently, and it's common for consumers to have both of them. We think that it would be similar  for PNDs and smartphones, one will have both devices.

So, to summarize: GPS phones are a new category of product, aimed at a pedestrian usage. They will complement PNDs, which will be focused on car navigation, and sooner or later be connected as well.