#2 - Will the current dominant PND players be threatened by new entrants ?

The European market is today dominated by 3 manufacturers: TomTom (48% of sales), Garmin (19%) and Mitac (16%) with its two brands Mio and Navman. In the US, Garmin leads (52%), followed by Magellan (16%) and TomTom (20%).

So, basically, the worldwide PND market is controlled by 4 manufacturers. Is there any chance they could be threatened by new entrants ? Two types of companies could be envisionned: big consumer electronics companies (Philips, LG, Sony, etc) and major car-entertainment suppliers (Pioneer, Becker, Alpine, etc).

Well, here is our guess:

1. Consumer Electronics companies : they tried to enter the market, in particular Sony and Philips. The latter already stopped its PND operations. Even if they have the power and brand necessary to penetrate the market, we don't think they will be willing to in the short-medium term. However, keep an eye on Nav N Go. They probably have the best independent navigation software on the market, and are agressively pushing it towards CE companies of all sorts !
2. Car-entertainment suppliers: their products are costly, although well integrated in the dash board. However, PND manufacturers are already succesfully entering the car-fitted market. TomTom signed an agreement with Toyota to provide GPS to the Yaris, and acquired Siemens VDO's navigation arm. We expect PND manufacturers to work more closely with the automotive industry and improve the integration with the car.

So, is the real threat coming from GPS phones ? We'll look at that question very soon. Keep in touch !